2025年度策略核心驱动之化债：注入流动性，修复资产负债表

Group 1 - The report highlights the current status of local government debt, indicating that the debt pressure varies across regions, with some areas facing mismatches between debt pressure and local debt limits [3][50]. - The first round of debt replacement involved a large-scale conversion of hidden debts into on-balance-sheet government bonds, initiated in 2019, with a total issuance of 157.664 billion yuan across seven provinces [24][46]. - The report outlines the progress of the new round of debt replacement, emphasizing that local governments remain the main entities responsible for debt resolution, with policies aimed at alleviating fiscal difficulties without direct strong stimulus measures [7][11]. Group 2 - The report presents two stock selection strategies based on the debt replacement process, focusing on Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and local investment companies that benefit directly from local government debt resolution [11][12]. - The performance of related sectors during the debt replacement phases shows significant fluctuations, with construction materials, banking, and real estate sectors experiencing increases of 20.54%, 7.52%, and 4.54% respectively during the initial trial phase [47][48]. - The report notes that the issuance of special refinancing bonds peaked in December 2021, with a total of 5.108 billion yuan issued during the latter half of the debt replacement process, highlighting regional disparities in bond issuance [55][56].