磷化工行业：2024年12月月度观察-磷矿石表观消费量创新高，价格继续高位运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the stock prices of recommended companies are expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [24][49]. Core Views - The report highlights that the export data for glyphosate from China has significantly improved since 2024, with expectations for increased demand in the Northern Hemisphere by early 2025 [4]. - The agricultural chemical industry has entered a destocking phase since August 2022, but the supply-demand balance has normalized as of September 2023, with exports of non-halogenated organic phosphorus derivatives from China showing a year-on-year growth of over 10% [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for phosphate rock prices due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [23][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Performance of the Phosphate Chemical Industry - The SW Phosphate Fertilizer and Phosphate Chemical Index underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 7.24 percentage points in December 2024, but outperformed it by 12.30 percentage points over the entire year [49]. 2. Phosphate Rock Industry Fundamentals - The apparent consumption of phosphate rock in China reached 106.83 million tons from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11%, marking the highest level since 2018 [50]. - The price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei remained high at 1040 RMB/ton as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.97% [50]. 3. Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Fundamentals - The report notes that the average price of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) was 3034 RMB/ton, down 8.89% year-on-year, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) was priced at 3541 RMB/ton, down 3.83% year-on-year [55]. 4. Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphoric Acid Fundamentals - The report indicates that the price of yellow phosphorus has been under pressure due to rising production costs, with the average cost around 24106.3 RMB/ton as of December 31, 2024 [12]. 5. Feed-grade Phosphates Fundamentals - The average market price of dicalcium phosphate was 2815 RMB/ton as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.56% [68]. 6. Phosphorus-containing New Energy Materials Fundamentals - The production of lithium iron phosphate in China reached 229.93 million tons from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.80%, indicating strong demand for phosphate rock [55]. 7. Phosphorus-containing Pesticides Fundamentals - Glyphosate production in China was primarily for export, with significant demand from North and South America, which are major agricultural production regions [41]. 8. Key Announcements from Listed Companies in the Phosphate Chemical Industry - Companies like Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are expanding their production capacities, with Yuntianhua planning to enhance its R&D capabilities through asset acquisitions [19][18]. 9. Guosen Chemical Views and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends companies with rich phosphate reserves such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Hubei Yihua and Yuntu Holdings for their increasing phosphate rock production capacities [23][51].