氟化工行业：2024年12月月度观察：2025年制冷剂配额公示，一季度空调排产持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [41][64]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for refrigerant products, driven by the tightening of production quotas and increasing demand from various sectors, including air conditioning and refrigeration [59][63]. - The refrigerant market is expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand, particularly for R22, R32, R125, and R134a [59][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - As of December 30, 2024, the fluorochemical index stood at 1321.61 points, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous month, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance [55]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 23.32% year-on-year increase in air conditioning production in November 2024, indicating a recovery in the domestic market [63]. 2. Refrigerant Market Analysis - The report notes that the production quotas for refrigerants are becoming stricter, with a significant reduction in HCFCs and an increase in the quotas for third-generation refrigerants like R32 [20][59]. - The prices for various refrigerants have been rising, with R22 quoted at 32,000-33,000 yuan per ton and R134a at 41,000-43,500 yuan per ton as of December 30, 2024 [56][63]. 3. Future Projections - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants like R22 in 2025 due to rapid supply contraction and strong support from the air conditioning repair market [59][63]. - It is expected that the demand for third-generation refrigerants will remain balanced, with a slight increase in supply but a significant rise in demand [59][63]. 4. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., both of which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions and production quota adjustments [11][64].