地产链化工品追踪系列报告（2024-12）：住建部表示将持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳，PVA等月均价环比回暖

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The real estate industry is a significant downstream consumer of chemical products, and its performance directly impacts the chemical sector [44] - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with the National Housing Development Prosperity Index showing a slight increase in November 2024 [44] - Monthly average prices for various chemical products have shown mixed trends, with some products experiencing price increases while others have seen declines [71] Monthly Performance of Real Estate and Upstream Chemical Products - In November 2024, the National Housing Development Prosperity Index was 92.62 points, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73 points but a month-on-month increase of 0.14 points [44] - The average price index for chemical products (CCPI) in November 2024 was 4351.22, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.76% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.41% [44] - The report indicates that the average price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer TPEG in December 2024 was 7823.36 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.53% and a year-on-year increase of 10.19% [20] - The average price of MDI in December 2024 was 18563.64 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.07% [20] Upstream Chemical Products Overview - The report provides insights into various chemical products, including: - Glass Industry: The average price of flat glass (5mm) in December 2024 was 1368.00 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.56% [35] - Soda Ash: The average price of heavy soda ash in December 2024 was 1536.68 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 47.90% [79] - Cement: The average price of cement in December 2024 was 370.48 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.53% and a year-on-year increase of 6.91% [55] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of MDI is expected to decrease due to maintenance at major production facilities, impacting market availability [68] - The demand for construction materials, including cement and superplasticizers, is expected to remain subdued due to seasonal factors and reduced construction activity in colder regions [60][85] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to positively influence the demand for chemical products in the future [73]