2025年海外经济年度展望：欧美经济分化，海外配置利好美元资产

Economic Overview - The economic divergence between Europe and the U.S. is evident, with European countries facing stagnation while the U.S. economy remains resilient, benefiting dollar assets[6][14]. - By Q3 2024, GDP levels in Germany, France, the UK, and Japan are projected to exceed 1-3.5% above 2019 averages, indicating a prolonged stagnation in Europe[14]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2025 has narrowed to 1-2 times, with a possibility of no rate cuts at all[2]. - The current model suggests that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain between 3.7-3.85% and not exceed 5%[8]. Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market is viewed as slightly positive, with the S&P 500 currently exceeding its long-term trend by 31%[2]. - The financial environment is loosening, with banks not tightening loan standards for medium and large enterprises, which supports investment growth[39]. Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation risks are rising, influenced by Trump's tax and tariff policies, but the ultimate trajectory will depend on various factors, including monetary policy[7][63]. - The household debt burden remains low, with the debt repayment ratio at a historical low of 5.78% as of Q2 2024, indicating strong consumer spending potential[9][46]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to moderately increase allocation to short-term bonds and maintain long positions in U.S. equities while closely monitoring liquidity conditions[9][66]. - The anticipated tax cuts and regulatory relaxations under Trump could further stimulate investment in cyclical industries[52].