宏观动态跟踪报告：“特朗普交易”的新变化

Market Trends - The "Trump trade" has cooled down since December, shifting investor focus from "reflation" effects to "monetary tightening" and "stagflation" risks[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen, surpassing 4.6% by December 27, indicating increased market pressure[18] - The S&P 500 index saw a style shift, with cyclical and small-cap stocks underperforming, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors remained strong[60] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's December meeting marked a pivotal shift, signaling a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with inflation forecasts for 2025 raised significantly[75] - Projected real GDP growth for 2024 is 2.5%, with unemployment expected to be around 4.2%[10] - Core PCE inflation is projected at 2.8% for 2024, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[10] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin prices surged past $100,000 in early December but fell back after the Fed's hawkish signals, reflecting its role as a barometer for the "Trump trade"[6] - Gold and oil prices have shown volatility, with gold facing downward pressure from rising real interest rates and a strong dollar[8] Policy Implications - Trump's upcoming policies may lead to a new wave of "Trump trades," with potential impacts on immigration, tariffs, and energy production[58] - If immigration and tariff policies exceed expectations, it could lead to "stagflation trades," while strong deregulation and spending cuts could result in "disinflation trades"[41]