钢铁2025年度策略报告：潜龙在渊，供给破局

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [3][9] Core Insights - The steel industry is facing severe supply-demand contradictions, characterized by high production, high costs, high exports, low demand, low prices, and low efficiency, referred to as the "three highs and three lows" [3][9] - The actual steel production capacity in China has reached 1.143 billion tons, exceeding the nominal capacity due to various factors, while the core demand from real estate has significantly declined, with new construction and construction areas dropping over 70% from their peak [3][9] - The supply-side reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan" focused more on "reduction" rather than "quality improvement," with over 150 million tons of crude steel capacity reduced from 2016 to 2018 [3][9] Summary by Sections Section 1: Review of Supply-Demand Contradictions - The supply-demand contradiction remains severe, with deep adjustments ongoing in the steel industry [14][26] - The actual crude steel production capacity is likely higher than nominal capacity, with 2023 capacity at 1.108 billion tons, increasing by 6.18 million tons from 2022 [26][54] Section 2: Urgent Need for Supply-Side Reform - The steel industry's profitability is significantly lower than during the previous supply-side reform, with the coal-steel-mineral cycle trends asynchronous [30][32] - Core demand for steel has peaked and is declining, exacerbating supply-demand contradictions in the construction materials sector [32][41] Section 3: Focus on "Reduction" in Supply-Side Reform - The "13th Five-Year Plan" supply-side reform emphasized "reduction," achieving significant results in eliminating excess capacity, including the complete clearance of "rebar" capacity [34][61] - The current round of supply-side reform may drive "reduction" through "quality improvement," focusing on energy efficiency and ultra-low emissions [9][34] Section 4: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and others [9][49] - Companies engaged in restructuring and possessing excellent growth potential, like Baosteel and Ansteel, are also highlighted as investment opportunities [9][49]