行业配置主线探讨：转向大盘风格

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition towards large-cap styles, indicating that small-cap growth is likely to perform strongly during the year-end market rally, with sectors such as growth, cyclical, and consumer showing good elasticity [6][14][32] - Historical data suggests that if the index is at a low level, the year-end rally tends to start earlier and with greater amplitude, leading to a higher probability of positive returns. Conversely, if the index is at a high level, the rally starts later, with greater uncertainty in amplitude and returns [14][16] - The report notes that before the year-end rally, the market often experiences adjustments, which can temporarily benefit undervalued sectors such as finance, real estate, and cyclical stocks [22][20] Group 2 - The report suggests that in January, the market style is seasonally biased towards large-cap stocks, as annual economic and industry earnings become more predictable, leading to a valuation switch towards low-valuation, high-certainty large-cap blue-chip stocks [20][22] - It is indicated that high-frequency economic data has not shown a clear trend reversal, and during periods of stability in policies and economic data, trading funds may cool down, suggesting a focus on value sectors in the short term [26][27] - The report recommends a focus on undervalued sectors such as financial real estate, cyclical stocks, and certain stable domestic consumption sectors, particularly in the upcoming month [9][20][27] Group 3 - The report provides specific allocation suggestions for the next month, prioritizing financial real estate, upstream cyclical sectors, and low-valuation defensive stocks, while also considering AI and consumer electronics as new growth areas [9][20][27] - For the next three months, the report suggests focusing on AI and consumer electronics, followed by upstream cyclical sectors and consumption, with an emphasis on the potential for policy support and index upward elasticity [9][20][27] - The report emphasizes that if commodity prices begin to rise in 2025, it will likely require a demand recovery, with upstream resource companies being highlighted as having strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [9][20][27]