2025年度策略：生猪养殖进入成本竞争新格局 看好宠物和户外市场持续扩容

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the pig farming industry, suggesting a left-side layout strategy focusing on companies with cost advantages and capacity expansion capabilities [20][106]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is entering a new cost competition landscape, with a focus on companies that can balance cost advantages and capacity expansion [111]. - The pet food market is expected to accelerate its expansion, with a notable shift towards domestic brands and increased competition [18][23]. - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing a shift to single-digit growth, with various niche segments showing promising potential [12][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Industry - The industry is witnessing a significant rebound in pig prices after a year of losses, with the average price expected to reach 16.81 yuan/kg in 2024, a 1.79 yuan/kg increase from 2023 [42]. - The supply of pigs is tightening due to a large-scale epidemic in 2023, leading to a rapid decrease in breeding stock and creating a supply gap that supports price increases [44][50]. - Cost of pig farming is entering a downward cycle, with average costs projected at 14.62 yuan/kg in 2024, down 1.56 yuan/kg from the previous year, enhancing profit margins [47][70]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong cost structures and capacity expansion strategies, recommending firms like Juxing Agriculture and Zhengbang Technology [85][106]. 2. Pet Economy - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on the emergence of the "80/20 rule" where a few brands dominate the market [15][23]. - The pet health sector is seeing a rapid increase in demand for veterinary services, with the market size reaching 735 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 24.5% of the overall pet market [17]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing domestic production of pet vaccines, particularly for cats, which is expected to replace imported products, with companies like Ruipubio being highlighted for investment [11][16]. 3. Outdoor Sports Industry - The outdoor sports sector is transitioning to a phase of single-digit growth, with various niche markets such as running, climbing, and winter sports showing strong performance [19][24]. - The report notes that compared to developed countries, there is still significant room for growth in per capita spending and market penetration in the outdoor sports segment [24].