Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas FeNi production capacity is expected to continue to clear, with companies like Glencore and Eramet announcing production halts [2][13] - IGO's Cosmos nickel mine in Western Australia is transitioning to maintenance mode due to rising operational and capital costs, leading to layoffs and impairments [3] - The report indicates that the cost structure for NPI production in China is currently at $12,800 per nickel ton, while the latest transaction price is around $9,750 per nickel ton, indicating a loss situation [9] - The report anticipates that the overall cost of NPI will trend upwards in the long term due to tightening supply and policy risks in Indonesia [10] - The report notes that the production of NPI in Indonesia has significantly increased, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4% from 2018 to 2023, and is expected to reach 1.35 million tons by 2024 [55] Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas FeNi Production - Companies like Glencore and Eramet have announced production halts, indicating a potential reduction in overseas FeNi supply [2][13] - Cerro Matoso's production costs have increased by 16% in 2023, reaching $11,089 per ton due to rising labor and contractor costs [14] Section 2: NPI Production Costs - The report details that the cost of NPI production in China is $12,800 per ton, while the latest market price is $9,750 per ton, leading to losses [9] - The report suggests that the cost of NPI is expected to rise in the future due to tightening supply and potential policy changes in Indonesia [10] Section 3: Production Capacity and Trends - The report states that Indonesia's NPI production has grown significantly, with a total production of 1.76 million tons in 2023, up from 698,000 tons in 2018, reflecting a 153% increase [55] - The report also mentions that the production capacity of NPI in Indonesia is expected to reach 1.35 million tons by 2024, with ongoing discussions about limiting further capacity expansion [55] Section 4: Cost Structures and Comparisons - The report outlines that the cost structure for NPI production is heavily influenced by nickel ore prices, with raw materials accounting for over 52% of total costs [37] - It highlights that the cost of HPAL projects is decreasing, with significant investments leading to lower costs per ton of nickel produced [54]
镍钴系列报告·开篇：周期谷底探寻，镍成本支撑何在？
Minmetals Securities·2025-01-03 01:53