碳酸锂专题报告：资源端供给出清提速，2025年价格中枢将抬升

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the lithium industry, indicating that the price of lithium is expected to rise in 2025 due to supply adjustments and demand recovery [2][3][17]. Core Insights - The lithium price is currently stabilizing at a low point, with high-cost projects being suspended, leading to a clearer trend of industry supply adjustment. Eight Australian mines have announced production cuts during the current downturn, which is a significant factor in halting the price decline [2][3][20]. - In 2025, there is potential for inventory replenishment, with an expected demand growth rate of nearly 30%. The supply surplus is anticipated to narrow, with lithium prices projected to return to a range of 80,000 to 85,000 CNY per ton [3][17]. - The report highlights that while the supply situation is improving, a complete reversal of the supply-demand balance may take longer, with a significant surplus expected in 2026-2027 [3][17]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The report indicates that the total supply of lithium in 2025 is expected to be 1.55 million tons LCE, an 18% increase year-on-year, with new supply contributing approximately 240,000 tons [16][19]. - Australian mines, except for Greenbushes, have announced significant production cuts, impacting the 2025 supply by over 100,000 tons LCE [29][31]. - The cash costs of Australian mines are reported to be significantly higher than current market prices, leading to over 50% of the supply being unprofitable [22][41]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is projected to increase by 23% in 2025, with total demand expected to reach 1.4 million tons [3][17]. - The report notes that the demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow, with sales projected to reach 20.83 million units in 2025, a 22% increase [77]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with quality resources, including Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Yongxing Materials, Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, as they are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions [17].