SAIC MOTOR(600104) 海通国际·2025-01-03 04:26Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd, projecting a target price of RMB 24.39 based on a 2025 PE of 22 times [4][22]. Core Insights - SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is a leading player in China's automotive industry, achieving wholesale sales of 1.83 million units and retail sales of 2.12 million units in the first half of 2024. The retail sales of self-owned brands reached 1.24 million units, accounting for 58.8% of total sales. New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales were 524,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, while overseas retail sales grew by 12.7% to 548,000 units [2][19][20]. - The company effectively addresses overseas challenges, optimizing its production and sales layout to maintain market share in Europe and expanding into new markets such as Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and South America [20][22]. - In automotive technology innovation, SAIC has achieved a dual-driven R&D approach, focusing on both internal development and external collaborations. The Zero Bundle 3.0 supports L3 intelligent driving, expected to launch in 2025, while the next-gen 4.0 integrates AI for L4 intelligent driving [3][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for SAIC are RMB 649.3 billion, RMB 740.8 billion, and RMB 850.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 10.1 billion, RMB 12.8 billion, and RMB 14.2 billion for the same years [4][22]. - The report anticipates a decline in revenue for 2024 due to pressures on both joint venture and self-owned brand sales, with expected revenues of RMB 410 billion, RMB 495.1 billion, and RMB 597.8 billion for the vehicle business from 2024 to 2026 [8][17]. - The parts business is expected to recover alongside the overall industry, with projected revenues of RMB 182.9 billion, RMB 189.3 billion, and RMB 196.1 billion for the same period [8][17].