信也科技（FINV）：印尼贷款定价维持，海外盈利或增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $7.90 [7][8]. Core Insights - The Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) has decided to keep the daily interest rate cap for short-term consumer loans at 0.3%, which is higher than previously planned. This regulatory stance is expected to support the profitability growth of the company's overseas operations [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas loan disbursements, with RMB 2.7 billion in new loans in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.4% [3]. - The report projects a 36% year-on-year growth in overseas loan disbursements for 2025, driven by stable pricing in the Indonesian market and the benefits of scale [3][4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The Indonesian regulatory framework for short-term consumer loans has shifted, maintaining the daily interest rate cap at 0.3% for loans with a duration of 6 months or less, which is expected to encourage financial performance in the sector [2]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit forecasts have been revised upward to RMB 23.9 billion, RMB 27.7 billion, and RMB 33.5 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an adjustment of 0%, +6%, and +14% [4]. - The company is currently trading at 0.7x its estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025, indicating potential value for investors [4]. Loan Growth and Profitability - The overseas loan wear-off rate for the first half of 2024 was 75.7%, higher than the domestic rate of 59.5%, suggesting shorter loan durations in overseas markets [3]. - The report anticipates that the company's overseas business will experience faster profit growth compared to loan disbursement growth due to stable pricing and reduced marginal costs [3].