2025年CFETS新权重简评:CFETS调整的五个看法
Huachuang Securities·2025-01-03 07:15

CFETS Basket Adjustments - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index basket includes 25 currencies with the addition of the Macau Pataca, which has a weight of approximately 0.1%[16] - The concentration of the top five currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, KRW, AUD) decreased from 61.0% in 2024 to 59.7% in 2025[18] - The weight of developed market currencies declined from 72.3% in 2020 to 66.1% in 2025, while emerging market currencies increased from 27.7% to 33.9%[22] Currency Weight Changes - The USD weight decreased from 21.6% in 2020 to 18.9% in 2025, JPY from 11.2% to 8.6%, and KRW from 10.7% to 8.4%[22] - The Malaysian Ringgit and Russian Ruble saw the most significant weight increases among emerging market currencies, rising from 3.7% in 2020 to 5.1% and 4.9% respectively in 2025[22] Impact on RMB Exchange Rate - The influence coefficient of the USD index on the RMB central parity rate decreased from 0.341% to 0.337% under the new weights[27] - A 5% appreciation in the USD index from 108.5 to 113.9 would result in a 1.7% depreciation pressure on the RMB central parity rate, moving from 7.19 to approximately 7.31[30]