建材建筑行业点评：1月问道光伏玻璃——库存拐点出现

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the photovoltaic glass industry, indicating a potential price stabilization in Q4 2024 after a significant decline in prices from April to September 2024 [1][5][20]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic glass prices experienced a downward trend from April to September 2024, with a notable drop of 25.7% from a peak of 26.25 CNY/sqm in April to 19.5 CNY/sqm by November [1][5]. - The industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a marginal exit of overcapacity estimated at 26.3% due to proactive measures by leading companies to reduce production [2][5][20]. - A significant reduction in inventory has been observed, with a 17.3% decrease in industry inventory from October to December 2024, indicating a potential turning point for prices as demand from downstream component manufacturers is expected to increase post-Spring Festival [3][19]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - From mid-March 2024, expectations for price increases emerged, leading to a peak in early April, followed by a continuous decline in prices until September [1][13]. - The price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass fell to 19.5 CNY/sqm by November, reflecting a significant drop from earlier highs [1][13]. Supply Side Changes - As of the end of 2024, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass in production was 92,490 tons, down from 98,530 tons at the end of the previous year [3][14]. - The industry has seen a high proportion of small furnace shutdowns, with 34 production lines undergoing cold repairs, indicating a strategic response to high energy consumption and costs [3][14]. Inventory and Demand - The industry inventory has shown a consistent decline, with a total of 1.6742 million tons reported by the end of December 2024, suggesting a shift towards a more favorable supply-demand balance [3][19]. - The report anticipates that the demand for replenishment from downstream component manufacturers after the Spring Festival could further support the recovery of prices [3][19]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply-side policies, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's guidelines on energy consumption for photovoltaic manufacturing, which could accelerate the exit of high-energy-consuming capacities from the market [4][20].