食品饮料行业2024年12月月报：逻辑缺位，行情掉头，量缩价降显著

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "weaker than the market" with a forecasted decline of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [3][67]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.19% in December 2024, with mixed performances across sub-sectors. Prepared foods, pre-packaged foods, and health products saw significant declines of 12.29%, 4.75%, and 2.08% respectively, while beer, snacks, soft drinks, and meat products increased by 9.74%, 8.68%, 11.3%, and 4.01% respectively [9][11]. - For the entire year of 2024, the food and beverage sector recorded a cumulative decline of 1.61%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 16.2% [11][12]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector decreased to 20.04 times earnings by December 31, 2024, a 60.99% drop from the peak in 2020, but it improved its ranking among 31 sectors, moving from the bottom to a mid-tier position [22][26]. - Investment in the domestic food manufacturing industry showed a significant increase, with fixed asset investments rising by 24.5% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In December 2024, the food and beverage sector fell by 0.19%, with notable declines in prepared foods and health products, while beer and snacks benefitted from seasonal demand [9][11]. - The sector's performance throughout 2024 was predominantly negative, with a cumulative decline of 1.61% despite some sub-sectors showing positive growth [11][12]. 2. Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation as of December 31, 2024, was 20.04 times earnings, reflecting a significant decrease from previous highs, yet it improved its relative position among other sectors [22][26]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In December 2024, 42 out of 127 listed companies in the sector saw their stock prices rise, while 85 experienced declines, indicating a predominantly negative trend [26]. 4. Industry Output and Investment - Fixed asset investments in the food manufacturing sector increased significantly in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.5% from January to November [30]. - Production of key consumer goods like fresh meat, wine, and beer showed a contraction in output during the same period [31][36]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, snacks, and yeast sectors for 2025, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [57][61].