Sany Renewable Energy (688349) 中国银河·2025-01-03 11:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Sany Renewable Energy (688349 SH) [1] Core Views - Sany Renewable Energy has rapidly grown its market share in the wind turbine sector, ranking 4th in the domestic onshore wind market with a 10 1% share in 2023 [2] - The company's "Dual Sea" strategy (offshore and overseas markets) is expected to drive future growth, with overseas revenue reaching 310 million yuan in 2023, a 38,836% YoY increase [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's cost advantages stem from its dual-fed technology, transformer-on-tower design, and self-developed core components [2] - The company's power station development business is becoming a second growth curve, with a gross margin consistently above 70% [2] Company Development and Performance - Sany Renewable Energy's wind turbine sales capacity grew from 3 2GW in 2021 to 7 24GW in 2023, with a CAGR of 33 6% [2] - In 2024H1, the company achieved 3 3GW of domestic onshore wind turbine sales, a 121% YoY increase [2] - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024Q1-3 were 9 07 billion yuan and 690 million yuan, respectively, with a 21% YoY increase in revenue [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's gross margin for 2024Q1-3 was 15 5%, higher than industry average [2] Wind Power Industry Outlook - Domestic onshore and offshore wind installations are expected to reach 90-100GW and 15-18GW respectively in 2025, with YoY growth of 18 8% and 83 3% [2] - The wind power industry is expected to maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, driven by new energy installation demand and structural improvements [2] - The industry's concentration is high, with CR5 reaching 73 6% in 2023 [86] - Wind turbine prices are expected to stabilize, with limited room for further declines in offshore wind turbine prices [89] Cost Advantages - Sany Renewable Energy's cost advantages come from its dual-fed technology, transformer-on-tower design, and self-developed core components [2] - The company's gross margin for 2024Q1-3 was 15 5%, higher than industry average [2] - Sany Renewable Energy's production, operation, and supply chain are fully digitalized, further enhancing cost efficiency [140] Dual Sea Strategy - Overseas revenue reached 310 million yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 22 07%, 5 25 percentage points higher than domestic business [2] - The company has won multiple projects in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, and is accelerating overseas capacity construction [2] - Sany Renewable Energy has launched 8 5-16MW offshore wind products and is expected to secure orders in northern China [2] Power Station Development - Sany Renewable Energy's power station business has a gross margin consistently above 70%, contributing significantly to profits [2] - As of 2024H1, the company's under-construction scale exceeded 2GW, with power generation revenue reaching 128 million yuan and investment income of 442 million yuan [2] - The company adopts a "rolling development" strategy for power station operations, continuously developing new projects while selling mature ones [155] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 2 051 billion yuan, 2 195 billion yuan, and 2 738 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 1 67 yuan, 1 79 yuan, and 2 23 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 17 7x, 16 5x, and 13 2x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]