2024年四季度国际宏观事件观察——东亚和中东欧

Political Developments - Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, leading to potential policy challenges for Prime Minister Kishida[2] - South Korea's political instability increased with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, raising uncertainties about the country's governance[5] - Tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalated, with military actions and the establishment of a new monitoring mechanism for sanctions against North Korea by South Korea, the US, and Japan[6] Economic Trends - China's economic recovery is supported by a combination of existing and new policies, with significant growth in consumer goods sales and investment in equipment, contributing to a notable increase in economic indicators[9] - Japan announced a substantial economic stimulus package worth 39 trillion yen to combat high inflation and stimulate growth, despite a downward revision of its economic growth forecast to 0.3% by the IMF[10][11] - South Korea's central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years, reflecting a cautious approach to economic growth and inflation, with revised growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025[19] Financial Market Insights - The issuance of Panda bonds reached 194.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing attractiveness of RMB-denominated bonds[15] - The Korean won depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate against the US dollar reaching 1,429.50, marking a decline of over 12% since the beginning of the year[16] - Japan's central bank maintained its interest rate at 0.25%, indicating a cautious stance on monetary policy normalization amid economic uncertainties[16] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation rates in Central and Eastern Europe remain sticky, with Poland's November inflation at 4.6% and Hungary's at 3.7%, prompting cautious monetary policy from central banks[23] - The Czech National Bank and other regional banks have signaled a pause in interest rate cuts, reflecting concerns over inflation and currency stability[24]