行业研究 电力行业 2026 年电力行业展望：延续绿色转型与市场化改革双主 线发展 文/赵茜、吴雅菲、梁欢 摘要 2025 年，电力行业供给结构持续优化，新能源装机及发电量快速增长，煤电加速向调峰支 撑转型，供需总体平衡；上网电价整体承压，政策推动电力市场改革与全国统一市场体系建设 取得关键进展，行业信用状况整体优良，发债主体以高等级央企国企为主，融资优势显著。2026 年，电力行业预计将延续绿色转型与市场化改革双主线发展，供给端新能源装机占比继续提升， 煤电加快向调峰支撑角色转变，系统调节能力成为关键，供需继续维持整体平衡，成本端呈回 升态势，电价在市场化深化背景下继续承压，预计电力企业盈利空间或将收窄，政策将继续推 动全国统一电力市场建设，鼓励绿电、储能等主体参与市场。 1 行业研究 |电力行业 行业研究 |电力行业 一、行业供给能力分析 电力装机延续绿色增长趋势，煤电调峰作用的转变效果凸显，电源结构转型加速，但系统 调节与消纳能力亟待提升；预计 2026 年，电源结构绿色转型将加速，调节能力成为破局关键。 2025 年，电力装机延续增长趋势，截至 2025 年末，全国全口径发电装机容量 38.9 亿千 ...

房地产行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望： 行业研究 房地产行业 销售持续筑底，止跌回稳转向巩固稳定态势 工商部 | 马天姿 葛若寒 2026 年 1 月 28 日 摘要 2025 年，供给端在"严控增量"政策下深度收缩，房地产开发投资加速探底，新房供应 持续减少；需求端销售降幅收窄，呈止跌回稳态势，结构方面进一步向高能级城市及住宅需 求集中；百城新建住宅价格仍结构性微涨，但二手房市场"以价换量"行情未变；全年宏观 政策定调统筹风险化解与模式转型，从"止跌回稳"到"巩固稳定态势"；融资端修复效果有 限，信用利差同比有所下降，增信方式对降低信用利差的作用有限；行业内违约问题及债务 压力仍存在。从 2025 年全年房地产市场发展情况来看，我国房地产行业仍处于深度调整向弱 复苏过渡的筑底周期，政策托底不断巩固稳定态势，预计 2026 年市场有望逐步探明底部或将 进入筑底横盘阶段，"好房子"与城市更新的"优供给"举措将成为重要抓手，但长期仍需依 赖房地产发展新模式的建立与完善。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，房地产开发投资加速探底，新开工规模深度收缩。2025 年，在全年行业严控 ...

行业研究 TMT 之媒体行业 媒体行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望：媒体行业整体平 稳运行，将步入数字化转型的关键阶段 文/刘博雅 摘要 2025 年，传统媒体中图书零售整体呈现负增长，内容电商超越平台电商成为第一大细分 零售渠道，近年来新媒体用户规模持续扩大，微短剧数量与质量双升，游戏行业市场规模保持 增长态势，2025 年全年收入规模和用户规模均创历史新高。随着数字化技术的普及和用户习 惯的改变，媒体行业的需求结构正经历重塑，市场格局呈现"流量向巨头集中、传统媒体转型 求生"的竞争态势。信用评级方面，媒体行业发债主体集中在传统媒体细分行业，级别以 AAA 为主，2025 年 AA+级别主体发行规模同比大幅增长，2025 年二季度以来无担保债券发行信用 利差（平均数）相对稳定。回顾 2025 年全年，媒体行业整体平稳运行，展望 2026 年，行业将 步入数字化转型的关键阶段，行业内企业将持续分化，依赖高杠杆或商业模式滞后的公司，可 能继续面临市场出清的压力。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 传统媒体方面，2025 年全年图书零售整体呈现负增长。根据北京开卷信息技术有限公司 （以下简称 ...

行业研究 行业研究|煤炭行业 煤炭行业 大公国际：能源转型背景下煤炭企业高质量发展策略 ——存量时代的供需逻辑、价格趋势与突破方向 文/工商部 白迪、刘佳聪、陈杰 摘要 "富煤、贫油、少气"的资源禀赋决定了我国以煤炭为主的能源结构。在 2025 年 《政府工作报告》中，国务院总理李强提到协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会 发展全面绿色转型。在全球能源转型、中国"双碳"目标及深化供给侧结构性改革的背 景下，煤炭作为传统能源的重要组成部分，正处于行业变革的关键时期。供给方面，行 业利润、环保政策分别是影响煤炭供给的核心内外生因素。需求方面，经济周期、产业 政策和电气化是过去影响需求的重要因素，人工智能或将成为未来影响新增需求的重大 因素。价格方面，2022 年以来我国煤炭价格整体呈现"先涨后跌"的态势，预计未来随 着市场化改革深化、绿色转型推进等，煤炭价格更趋向于市场化。本文从资源禀赋、供 需、进口及价格等方面对煤炭行业现状进行深度分析，选取部分上市煤炭企业作为案例 研究，最后提出煤炭企业在存量时代实现高质量发展的发力点。 正文 （一）煤炭资源禀赋 "富煤、贫油、少气"，是我国不可再生能源资源的特点。根据美国 ...

行业研究 行业研究|零售行业 零售行业 零售行业2025 年展望 消费品以旧换新加力扩围 电子消费领域迎来国补热潮 文/周春云 摘要 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总体保持平稳增长，服务零售对 消费增长形成重要支撑，网络零售占比持续提升；居民收入和消费均保持增长，但增速 有所下滑，全年 CPI 走势偏弱，我国物价仍处于低位。2024 年，国家层面陆续出台一系 列相关政策支持"两新"行动，消费品以旧换新工作取得积极成效；2025 年 1 月出台 《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，增加了家 电产品以旧换新补贴范围，并对购买手机、平板、智能手表手环 3 类数码产品实施购新 补贴，预计 2025 年，政策主基调仍将是消费品以旧换新。在电商等线上平台冲击以及 百货"闭店潮"下，零售企业面临较大盈利压力，2024 年前三季度，零售行业企业盈利 整体下行；未来随着《零售业创新提升工程实施方案》的逐步落地实施，零售业发展困 境或将有所好转，盈利能力或将有所提升。截至 2024 年末，零售行业存续主体整体级 别较高，存续债券期限结构较为分散，零售企业整体债务压力不大 ...

信用风险展望 | 融资租赁行业 信用风险展望 融资租赁行业 融资租赁行业 2025 年信用风险展望 革新破局正当时 融资租赁行业乘势起锚赴新程 分析师 冯琪雅 010-67413413 目录 赵子媛 010-67413401 金融部 行业组长 zhaoziyuan@dagongcredit.com 金融部 分析师 fengqiya@dagongcredit.com | 监管政策 2 | | --- | | 资产规模 3 | | 资产质量 4 | | 盈利能力 6 | | 资本充足水平 6 | | 债务融资 7 | | 信用质量 9 | 马时伊 010-67413344 金融部 分析师 mashiyi@dagongcredit.com 客户服务 电话：010-67413300 客服：4008-84-4008 Email：research@dagongcredit.com 2025 年 1 月 23 日 2024 年，行业监管政策继续引导融资租赁公司转型升级和高质 量发展。预计 2025 年，随着监管力度的不断加强和业务转型的压 力加大，融资租赁公司资产规模将呈现稳健增长但分化加剧的趋 势，资产质量整体可控，资本 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The traditional "pig cycle" has failed since 2022, with price fluctuations no longer adhering to the previous four-year cycle pattern, influenced by the rise of large-scale breeding enterprises and changes in market dynamics [1][12][13] - The analysis shifts focus from profitability to cash flow, emphasizing the behavior of market participants in understanding the credit risks within the pig farming industry [16][17] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork is a major protein source in China, with per capita consumption at 30.5 kg in 2023, leading to a stable demand in a market valued around 2 trillion [2] - The supply side is characterized by a long recovery cycle due to the pyramid breeding system, resulting in poor price elasticity [2][4] Historical Pig Cycles - From 2010 to 2022, China experienced three complete pig cycles, with price fluctuations driven by breeding profits and external factors like disease outbreaks [4][6] - The cycles typically last around four years, influenced by the pyramid breeding system and a market dominated by smallholders [9][10] Changes in Industry Structure - Since 2022, the pig cycle has deviated from its traditional pattern, with large-scale enterprises gaining market dominance, leading to rapid price fluctuations [12][13] - The shift to large-scale operations has altered the market's response to price changes, reducing the predictability of the cycle [13] Cash Flow and Market Behavior - The report highlights the importance of cash flow in the pig farming industry, noting that cash consumption increases when prices fall below production costs, leading to potential credit risks [16][17] - The ability of enterprises to manage cash flow and financing is crucial in navigating the industry's cyclical nature [25][44] Credit Risk Analysis - As of December 2024, the total bond issuance in the pig farming sector is 626.69 billion, with a concentration among major players like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [20][21] - The credit ratings of companies in the industry vary, with several rated AAA and AA, indicating a generally stable credit environment despite potential risks [20][22] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in pig supply in 2025, with average prices expected to decline compared to 2024, influenced by stable demand and rising production efficiency [30][42] - The financial health of the industry is improving, with cash reserves increasing and debt levels decreasing, although some smaller enterprises may face credit risks due to poor cost control [39][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the financing guarantee industry, with expectations of continued pressure on profitability and capital expansion slowing down [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The financing guarantee industry is expected to face operational challenges in 2024, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation. The market for bond guarantees is anticipated to shrink due to declining market interest rates and policy adjustments, leading to continued pressure on profitability in 2025 [3][4][5]. - The competition landscape in the financing guarantee industry is expected to remain stable, with credit quality holding steady and overall asset quality and liquidity risks being manageable [3][4][5]. Industry Policy - In 2024, policies will continue to emphasize increasing direct financing, with a focus on resource allocation to small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation. By 2025, it is expected that guarantee institutions will receive more support from local governments [4][5][6][7]. Business Operations - The market focus for guarantee institutions will remain on urban investment bonds, but the scale of bond guarantee business is expected to decline. Innovative financing guarantee products and non-financing guarantee services are anticipated to become key areas for differentiation [9][10][18]. - The operational pressure on guarantee institutions is evident, with a significant decrease in new bond guarantees and a cautious approach to market-based loan guarantees [10][19]. Asset Quality - The pressure on loan guarantee business compensation is expected to persist, but overall asset quality is projected to remain controllable. The structure of assets will continue to prioritize high liquidity [22][25]. Profitability - Profitability is expected to remain under pressure due to low guarantee fee rates and declining income from funding operations. The income from guarantee business is anticipated to decrease further in 2025 [26][31]. Liquidity - The liquidity risk for guarantee institutions is expected to remain manageable, with high liquidity assets effectively covering interest-bearing debts and compensation shocks from loan guarantees [32][38]. Capital Adequacy - The capital replenishment demand for market-oriented guarantee institutions is expected to slow down, with a differentiated capital level across the industry. Government-backed guarantee institutions may see an increase in capital needs, but challenges in replenishment remain [39][41]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the financing guarantee industry is expected to remain stable, with a high level of credit among institutions engaged in bond guarantees. As of the end of 2024, a significant number of guarantee institutions maintain high credit ratings [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable investment rating for the banking industry in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for credit quality and overall stability in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to experience stable credit quality in 2025, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will aid in credit growth and liquidity management [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory policies in guiding banks to effectively serve the real economy and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [4][5]. - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is projected to remain stable, aided by government debt risk mitigation and favorable real estate policies [23][30]. - Profitability is expected to face challenges due to continued pressure on net interest margins, particularly for regional banks [31][32]. - Liquidity levels are anticipated to remain sufficient, supported by ongoing monetary policy measures [38][41]. - Capital adequacy is expected to improve, particularly for state-owned large banks, while regional banks will continue to face urgent capital replenishment needs [42][45]. - Debt financing is projected to remain active, with a focus on special financial bonds, although the issuance of certain capital-raising bonds may decline [46][47]. - The overall credit quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with attention needed on banks in economically weaker regions [51][52]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - The regulatory framework will continue to guide banks in supporting the real economy and addressing risks in critical areas, with a focus on high-quality development [4][5]. Operating Scale - The banking sector's asset scale expansion is expected to slow, but supportive fiscal and monetary policies will stimulate credit demand [15][16]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of commercial banks is projected to remain stable, with a focus on mitigating credit risks in key sectors [23][30]. Profitability - Profitability pressures are anticipated due to narrowing net interest margins, particularly affecting regional banks [31][32]. Liquidity Level - The liquidity of commercial banks is expected to remain adequate, supported by monetary policy measures [38][41]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy levels are expected to improve, particularly for state-owned banks, while regional banks will face ongoing capital replenishment needs [42][45]. Debt Financing - Debt financing activities are expected to remain robust, with a focus on special financial bonds, although some capital-raising bond issuances may decline [46][47]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a need for vigilance regarding banks in economically weaker regions [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the urban investment industry, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring of credit risks and the potential for policy support to mitigate these risks [2][27]. Core Insights - The urban investment companies are undergoing accelerated transformation and increasing differentiation, with expectations for more incremental debt matching policies in the future [2][27]. - The overall local government debt risk is gradually easing, but the credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises is intensifying, particularly in regions with weaker fiscal strength and higher debt pressure [2][5]. - The report anticipates that the policy focus in 2025 will remain on preventing local government debt risks and accelerating the transformation of urban investment companies [2][27]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Regional Economic Environment - The economic operation in China is generally stable, with GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, despite a slight decline in public budget revenue [3][6]. - The local government debt scale continues to grow, but the overall debt ratio remains below international warning standards [3][19]. Regulatory Policies - Since 2024, debt reduction policies have been intensified, leading to an overall easing of local debt risks [22][27]. - The report highlights the need for proactive measures to manage existing hidden debts while preventing the emergence of new ones [22][27]. Bond Financing - In the first eleven months of 2024, the issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds have decreased, with a significant shift towards high credit rating entities [28][34]. - The report notes that the supply of urban investment bonds may shrink as debt replacement continues to progress [28][29]. Financial Status of Urban Investment Enterprises - The asset-liability ratio of urban investment enterprises has increased, with a stable number of companies reporting net losses [4][5]. - The operating cash flow situation is expected to improve in the short term due to ongoing policy support, although many enterprises still rely heavily on refinancing to manage maturing debts [4][5]. Debt Pressure - The next three years will see a peak in maturing urban investment bonds, with a significant portion of these bonds rated AA+ [5][21]. - Attention is required for weaker credit entities in regions with high debt pressure and limited repayment capacity [5][21]. Credit Levels and Credit Risks - Credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises has intensified, with stronger regions seeing upgrades in credit ratings while weaker regions face downgrades [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the progress of non-standard risk events and the resolution of regional debt risks [5][19]. Urban Investment Transformation and Platform Exit - Urban investment companies are increasingly aware of the need for market-oriented transformation, with many exploring suitable paths for this transition [5][27]. - The report suggests that urban investment companies must accelerate their transformation to shift from infrastructure builders to industry development promoters [5][27].