石化周报：气价上涨和美国政策推动石油市场升温

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]. Core Views - The oil market is heating up due to rising gas prices and U.S. policy changes, with a significant increase in gas prices following the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine [1][11]. - The report highlights that the U.S. oil production is expected to be lower than anticipated in 2025 due to the need for increased capital expenditure and the impact of new U.S. policies [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Gas prices have surged, leading to an increase in oil prices, with the Henry Hub/NYC gas spot price rising by 17.06% and 89.34% week-on-week [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. policies as they may significantly impact oil production forecasts for 2025 [1][11]. 2. Market Performance - As of January 3, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $76.51 per barrel, up 3.15% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose 4.76% to $73.96 per barrel [2][12]. - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production to 13.57 million barrels per day, down by 10,000 barrels week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Inventory Trends - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.18 million barrels to 41.56 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 7.72 million barrels to 23.14 million barrels [3][13]. 4. Price Differentials - The report indicates a narrowing of price differentials for polyester filament yarn, with ethylene/propylene/toluene and naphtha differentials changing by -7.82%, -6.85%, and -10.51% respectively [3][11]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong production growth and low cost per barrel, such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, as well as new natural gas companies like Xinneng Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [14][11]. 6. Company Performance - As of January 3, 2025, the report notes that CNOOC's stock price is at 29.09 yuan, with an EPS forecast of 3.29 yuan for 2025, while Sinopec's stock price is at 6.57 yuan with an EPS forecast of 0.46 yuan for 2025 [5][11]. 7. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses various industry developments, including the UAE's ADNOC injecting 200 billion dirhams into the economy and the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil supply chains [25][26]. 8. LNG Market Insights - The report highlights that the Northeast Asia LNG landed price increased to $15.12 per million British thermal units, up 3.45% week-on-week [2][12]. 9. Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of oil and gas prices, noting significant fluctuations in both futures and spot prices across various markets [43][47].