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信达生物:出海BD实现突破,国际化进程加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has made significant progress in its internationalization efforts, particularly with the global licensing of its DLL3ADC drug IBI3009 to Roche, which includes an upfront payment of 80millionandpotentialmilestonepaymentsupto80 million and potential milestone payments up to 1 billion, along with a sales revenue share [7] - The company is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven by 2025 and aims for domestic sales of 20 billion yuan by 2027, driven by multiple product launches and overseas collaborations [7] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 81 billion yuan in 2024, 114.91 billion yuan in 2025, and 151.78 billion yuan in 2026, indicating strong growth potential [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 4,557 million yuan, with a projected increase to 6,206 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 8,100 million yuan in 2024, 11,491 million yuan in 2025, and 15,178 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36.19% from 2022 to 2023 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 2,179.27 million yuan in 2022 to a profit of 2,211.27 million yuan by 2026, showcasing a significant turnaround [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to turn positive, reaching 1.35 yuan per share by 2026, compared to a loss of 1.33 yuan per share in 2022 [1]