KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 国信证券·2025-01-05 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [1][7] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved 15% revenue growth in 2024, meeting its annual target [1] - The company's 2025 operational goals are described as rational and pragmatic [1] - Moutai is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, leveraging its diversified distribution channels and rapid growth of series liquor [4] Financial Performance 2024 Performance - Estimated total revenue of 173 8 billion yuan (+15 44% YoY) [1] - Estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 7 billion yuan (+14 67% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 revenue of 506 77 billion yuan (+12 01% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 net profit of 248 72 billion yuan (+13 79% YoY) [1] Product Breakdown - Moutai liquor revenue: 145 8 billion yuan (+15 18% YoY) [2] - Series liquor revenue: 24 6 billion yuan (+19 24% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 Moutai liquor revenue: 446 74 billion yuan (+13 62% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 series liquor revenue: 52 07 billion yuan (+3 40% YoY) [2] Production - 2024 Moutai base liquor production: 56 300 tons (-1 58% YoY) [2] - 2024 series liquor base production: 48 100 tons (+12 02% YoY) [2] 2025 Outlook - Domestic market allocation for Moutai liquor to increase slightly [3] - 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai allocation to decrease, with increased focus on other specifications and cultural products [3] - Series liquor sales growth target: ≥14-15% [3] - Moutai 1935 to remain core product, with Moutai Prince and Hanjiang as key supporting products [3] - Moutai Prince aiming for 10 billion yuan revenue within 2 years [3] Financial Projections Revenue - 2025E: 187 75 billion yuan (+8 0% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 201 72 billion yuan (+7 4% YoY) [4] Net Profit - 2025E: 92 45 billion yuan (+7 9% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 100 34 billion yuan (+8 5% YoY) [4] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE: 21 8x [4] - 2025E PE: 20 2x [4] Shareholder Returns - 2024-2026 dividend payout ratio: ≥75% [4] - Mid-term cash dividend: 30 billion yuan [4] - Share buyback: 3-6 billion yuan [4] - 2025 dividend yield: 3 44% [4] Industry Context - The baijiu industry remains in a demand consolidation phase [4] - Industry-wide slowdown is becoming consensus [4] - Domestic demand expected to gradually recover with policy support in 2025 [4]