海外酒类研究系列报告（二）：白酒出海篇，乘出海之风，探突破之道

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, necessitating the exploration of a second growth curve through international expansion [4][14]. - Despite challenges such as cultural differences and high taxation, the outlook for Chinese liquor's international market potential remains optimistic [4][5]. - The report highlights the significant gap between the global trade position of Chinese liquor and China's overall trade status, indicating substantial growth opportunities for liquor exports [68]. Summary by Sections Domestic Liquor Market Status - The Chinese liquor industry has seen a decline in production since peaking in 2016, with total production in 2023 at 4.49 million kiloliters, a decrease of approximately 66.9% from 2016 [14]. - As one of the top three liquor-producing countries globally, the international market presents a potential second growth curve for the industry [14][20]. Challenges and Opportunities for International Expansion - The report identifies significant challenges for Chinese liquor in international markets, including high entry barriers due to varying regulations and taxation [22][29]. - However, the global alcoholic beverage market is gradually recovering, providing new growth points for the liquor industry [33][36]. - Recent policies are encouraging the liquor industry to expand internationally, improving the export business environment [37]. Comparison with Whiskey - Whiskey has a broader global production distribution compared to Chinese liquor, which is primarily concentrated domestically [48]. - The alcohol content of whiskey (40%-46%) is more aligned with global consumer preferences than that of Chinese liquor (52%-53%), which may hinder acceptance in international markets [52][56]. - In 2022, whiskey exports accounted for 15.27% of global alcoholic beverage exports, while Chinese liquor's share was only 0.71%, indicating a low market penetration [3][62]. Export Trends and Market Potential - The average export price of Chinese liquor in 2023 was $51.89 per liter, significantly higher than the $17.91 per liter for imported whiskey, which limits sales volume [3][65]. - The majority of Chinese liquor exports consist of high-end products, with Kweichow Moutai accounting for over 70% of total liquor exports, yet its export revenue represents only about 3% of its total income [3][66]. - The report emphasizes the misalignment between the global trade position of Chinese liquor and China's overall trade status, suggesting considerable room for growth in exports [68].