大类资产系列：美元：谁来给史诗级上涨降降温？

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Trends - The dollar has experienced a significant rise since December, marking its strongest performance in nearly a decade, contrary to Trump's preference for a weaker dollar[1] - The dollar index reached a high of 114.8 in September 2022, but conditions for surpassing this peak in 2025 are currently lacking[2] - The dollar's potential decline is anticipated in 2025, with a possible peak above 110 but not reaching the 2022 high[5] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The macroeconomic narrative suggests that the U.S. economy shows better resilience compared to China and the EU, making it unlikely for the dollar to drop below 100 in the near term[2] - Trump's policies may lead to a paradoxical tightening of fiscal policy initially, despite his push for aggressive fiscal measures[3] - The interplay between a strong dollar and trade balance could lead to increased tariffs, which may heighten inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, causing market volatility[3] Group 3: Future Considerations - The potential for Trump's administration to use tariffs as leverage for foreign purchases of U.S. debt could stabilize the bond market and prevent non-U.S. currencies from depreciating against the dollar[5] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be a turning point for the dollar's trajectory, influenced by fiscal policy shifts and geopolitical factors[5] - Risks include unexpected policy actions from the new administration that could lead to a significant downturn in the global economy, resulting in an unanticipated rise in the dollar index[5]