基础化工行业周报：24年年报期将至，建议关注油气、高景气周期品、国产替代三主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: oil and gas, high-cycle products, and domestic substitution, while also being optimistic about the industry's future prosperity [2][24] - In Q4 2024, the domestic chemical product price index (CCPI) is expected to remain stable, with a mean value of approximately 4367 points, indicating that companies with high growth in the first three quarters are likely to maintain strong annual growth [21][24] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the past five trading days, all sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed a downward trend, with the basic chemical sector declining by 6.9%, ranking 17th among all sectors [3][9] - The top five sub-sectors in terms of decline included polyester (-14.1%), viscose (-11.7%), and electronic chemicals (-10.8%) [11] 2. Key Product Price Tracking - Recent price increases were noted in acrylic acid (+5.13%), WTI crude oil (+5.04%), and butadiene (+4.98%) [17] - Conversely, significant price drops were observed in pure MDI (-4.43%) and urea (-3.45%) [19] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of listed companies in 2024 and the subsequent industry prosperity [2][24] - It highlights that 57 listed companies in the oil and petrochemical sectors achieved over 50% year-on-year net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [21][24] 4. Investment Recommendations - For the oil and gas sector, companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are recommended for attention [4] - In the high-cycle products category, focus is suggested on phosphate chemicals, refrigerants, and vitamins [34][35][39] - The report also recommends monitoring semiconductor materials and OLED materials in the domestic substitution category [41][44]