农林牧渔行业周报：鸭疫源头未明且混感难控，2025年进口宠物食品关税上调

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of white feather broilers and serious poultry diseases, with expectations for an increase in broiler chick prices in 2025 [3][4] - The report indicates a recovery in pig prices, with the average price reaching 16.19 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.5% week-on-week increase [2] - The report notes that the import tariff for pet food will increase from 4% to 10% starting January 1, 2025, which may lead to higher prices for imported pet food and promote domestic brand substitution [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The agricultural sector has seen a decline of 6.74% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - The agricultural sector's absolute PE and PB are reported at 28.31 times and 2.36 times, respectively, which are significantly lower than historical averages [34][36] 2. Livestock and Poultry - The average price of white feather chicken products is 9350 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week but down 1% year-on-year [3] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 126.06 kg, a drop of 1.7 kg week-on-week [2] - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the poultry sector due to duck virus infections and the unclear source of the outbreak [4] 3. Pet Food Industry - Pet food exports from China reached 302,600 tons from January to November 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [5] - The increase in import tariffs is expected to elevate costs for imported pet food brands, potentially benefiting domestic brands [5] 4. Grain Market - The report indicates a decrease in the global corn stock-to-use ratio to 20.7%, the lowest since the 2016/17 season [4] - The domestic corn price is reported at 2122.35 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [48]