农林牧渔行业周报：春节备货预期对猪价支撑有限，哈兽研BLPs非瘟疫苗研发突破或提振动保板块景气度

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs in China as of January 5, 2025, is 16.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.60 yuan/kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.32 yuan/kg. The strong price performance is attributed to overselling in December 2024 and pre-Spring Festival stocking expectations [10][11] - The report indicates that the supply of live pigs has gradually returned to normal since November 2024, and the winter African swine fever situation remains stable. However, there is still significant pressure on pig shipments before the Spring Festival [10][11] - The report discusses the breakthrough in the development of a non-epidemic vaccine by Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, which may boost the animal health sector's performance [4][15] Weekly Observations - The report notes that the pressure on pig shipments remains high before the Spring Festival, and the price of pigs may not be sustainable in the short term due to increased supply pressure [10][11] - The average weight of pigs sold this week is 126.06 kg, which is a decrease of 1.70 kg week-on-week. The premium for 150 kg pigs over 120 kg pigs has increased to 0.86 yuan/kg [4][12] - The report emphasizes that the animal health sector's performance is expected to improve as the pig population gradually recovers and profitability in pig farming increases [4][15] Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 1.19 percentage points during the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, with the agricultural index declining by 6.74% [20][21] - The report lists key recommended stocks in the pig farming sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [5][16] Price Tracking - As of January 3, 2025, the national average price for live pigs is 16.19 yuan/kg, up 0.53 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 28.24 yuan/kg, down 3.08 yuan/kg [31][32] - The report also notes that the prices of bass, corn, and soybean meal have increased week-on-week [30][31] Import Data - In November 2024, pork imports totaled 90,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, while chicken imports were 39,500 tons, showing a slight increase [50][52] Feed Production - The report states that the total industrial feed production in China for November 2024 was 27.1 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [54]