轻工制造行业周报：新型烟草&智能眼镜方兴未艾，以旧换新加码，出口链结构成长，国产宠食高端化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential in new tobacco products and smart glasses, emphasizing the importance of trade structure and the high-end domestic pet food market [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in the home furnishing sector due to government subsidies and an increase in demand for replacement products [2] - The paper industry is expected to see a mild price rebound driven by overseas demand recovery and low inventory levels among paper manufacturers [2] - The pet food sector is facing increased import tariffs, which may lead to higher retail prices for imported brands, while domestic high-end brands could benefit [2] - The export sector shows positive trends with improved order volumes and favorable exchange rate contributions, indicating a high degree of performance realization in the short term [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Subsidies for home furnishing are set to expand in 2025, with provinces like Hebei, Hainan, and Hubei already implementing policies based on 2024 standards [2] - Key players such as Xilinmen and Mousse are expected to see year-on-year growth in mattress shipments [2] - Companies leading in replacement demand include Oppein and Sophia, while others like Zhijia and Jinpai are in a growth cycle [2] Paper Industry - After a period of consolidation, pulp prices are expected to rebound, with Arauco's needle and broadleaf pulps increasing by $10 and $20 to $795 and $570 respectively [2] - The production and sales of specialty paper in 2023 were 7.43 million tons and 7.25 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and 3.1% [2] - Key companies to watch include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Xianhe Technology [2] Consumer Sector - The increase in import tariffs for pet food from 4% to 10% is expected to raise costs for brands like Orijen and Acana, potentially leading to higher retail prices [2] - Domestic high-end pet food brands are likely to benefit from this tariff increase [2] - Notable growth in sales for brands like Cold Acid Spirit and Freycat, with Cold Acid Spirit seeing a 211% year-on-year increase in December [2] Export Sector - The report indicates a positive trend in orders and exchange rate contributions, with a high degree of performance realization expected in the short term [2] - Companies with strong global layouts are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing trade dynamics [3]