宏观策略周报：静待市场企稳，关注红利及消费

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is approaching a support level, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to stabilize around 3200 points, following a previous drop to 3150-3200 points after the National Day holiday [5][12][21] - As of January 5, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market is 17.72 times, which is 61.35% lower than the historical average, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.51 times, 87.83% lower than the historical average [5][12][21] - The report emphasizes that the manufacturing PMI for December is at 50.1%, indicating expansion for three consecutive months, suggesting a marginal recovery in GDP growth for the fourth quarter [15][21] Group 2 - The report suggests a cautious defensive strategy while waiting for market stabilization, with a focus on high-dividend stocks, domestic demand expansion, and technology sectors as potential investment opportunities [21] - The central economic work conference has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with new policies such as subsidies for digital products expected to boost consumption in sectors like electronics and food and beverage [17][21] - The report highlights that the central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential further policy measures to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market [16][21] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market has shown significant sector divergence, with blue-chip sectors like coal, oil, and banking performing relatively better compared to technology and consumer sectors [14][21] - The report also mentions that the central bank's recent meeting indicated a stronger focus on monetary policy adjustments, aiming to enhance market stability and liquidity [16][21] - The report predicts that under optimistic scenarios, the national sales area of commercial housing may stabilize in 2025, although challenges remain in terms of income expectations and supply [19][21]