2025年1月利率月报：等待降准降息

Liquidity and Interest Rates - January liquidity is expected to be tight in the first half due to a funding gap of over 3.5 trillion yuan, driven by pre-holiday cash withdrawals, tax payments, and large MLF maturities[2] - R007 is expected to range between 1.8-1.9% in the first half of January, potentially peaking around the tax payment period[2] - The central bank may ease liquidity post-tax period and before the Spring Festival if sufficient countermeasures are implemented[2] Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy - The RMB exchange rate may strategically relax to around 7.5, providing room for monetary easing[3] - Historical trends suggest that RMB depreciation cycles last 3-6 months, with potential depreciation of up to 3% from the 7.3 level[3] - Exchange rate depreciation typically supports bond markets, limiting upward pressure on long-term interest rates[3] Bond Market and Rate Cuts - The bond market has already priced in a 20-25bp rate cut, with long-term rates potentially rebounding by 15-20bp if a 20bp cut is implemented[4] - A 25bp rate cut could lead to a weaker market adjustment and faster formation of a new bond market rally[4] - High-liquidity duration holdings, particularly in 10-year bonds, are recommended for institutions with unstable liabilities[6] Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts[7] - The central bank's countermeasures and the scale of liquidity injections will be critical in determining market stability[2]