社会服务行业·周观点：临近春节假期，旅游&电影市场景气度持续提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][42]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing a surge in activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with a significant increase in consumer willingness to travel compared to last year. Domestic and outbound travel are both on the rise, with domestic travel radius expanding [2][24]. - Data from Ctrip shows that as of December 31, 2025, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival period exceeded 2.44 million, and outbound flight bookings surpassed 1.12 million, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 37% [2][24]. - The report anticipates a "double peak" in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, driven by returning travelers before the holiday and vacationers after the holiday, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand for gifts and travel [2][24]. - The film market is projected to recover in 2025, with expectations for a strong performance during the Spring Festival box office, supported by an increase in quality film supply and favorable government policies [31][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social services sector index experienced a weekly decline of 8.60%, ranking 25th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification [12][18]. - The performance of sub-industries within social services showed declines, with tourism and scenic spots down by 6.97% [19][20]. Investment Themes - Tourism Market Growth: The report highlights the increasing popularity of winter tourism, driven by favorable policies and high-quality activities, which are expected to enhance consumer spending [24][27]. - Film Industry Outlook: The total box office for 2024 is reported at 42.50 billion yuan, with the 2025 Spring Festival expected to see a strong start due to an increase in quality films [31][33]. Policy Support - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has announced initiatives to enhance the quality of tourism products and services, including the introduction of new high-grade scenic spots and winter tourism products [27][36]. - Various local governments are expected to implement consumer stimulus policies to boost tourism demand, which will positively impact the performance of related listed companies [29][30].