储能2025年策略报告：大储扶摇直上，户储多点开花

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the energy storage industry, particularly focusing on overseas large-scale storage and emerging market household storage [4]. Core Insights - The global large-scale storage market is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 56% increase in installed capacity to 194 GWh by 2025. The U.S. is anticipated to lead this growth with a 45% increase to 51 GWh, while Europe and emerging markets are also expected to contribute significantly [6][31]. - Emerging markets for distributed storage are expected to continue high growth, driven by factors such as price parity with solar energy, rising electricity prices, and supportive policies [6]. - The energy storage supply chain shows high profitability in the U.S. and Europe, with leading companies maintaining strong market positions. However, competition is intensifying in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [6]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Large-Scale Storage - The U.S. is experiencing a surge in large-scale storage installations, with a 66% year-on-year increase in 2024. The expected installed capacity for 2025 is 51 GWh, driven by a rush to install before tariff increases [13][31]. - The report highlights the importance of the ITC tax credit, which has been in place for over a decade, providing significant financial incentives for storage investments [22]. PART 2: Emerging Market Household Storage - Household storage installations are projected to reach over 20 GWh in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 25%. The U.S. and Europe are expected to see a rebound in installations due to falling natural gas prices and interest rate cuts [6]. - Emerging markets such as Pakistan, Ukraine, and Nigeria are identified as having strong demand for household storage solutions, driven by energy supply challenges and government initiatives [6]. PART 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The report notes that the energy storage system market in the U.S. is characterized by high profitability, with prices around $0.2 per watt-hour, while domestic prices have dropped significantly [35]. - The battery cell market is dominated by companies like CATL, which holds approximately 60% of the U.S. market share. The report anticipates a continued increase in demand for battery cells, with global shipments expected to reach 500 GWh by 2025 [6][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the large-scale storage sector such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as well as in emerging market household storage companies like Dewei and Jinlang Technology [6].