手机专题：手机国补正式落地，看好国内手机产业链

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The release of domestic demand is crucial for economic growth, with the current Chinese consumer market characterized by both incremental and stock consumption. Policies such as trade-in and consumption subsidies can stimulate consumer purchasing power, driving demand for higher quality, more environmentally friendly, and smarter products, thereby promoting the development of corresponding industrial chains and the economy [5][6] - The implementation of subsidy policies for home appliances, automobiles, and mobile phones is expected to significantly boost sales in these sectors. For instance, the retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment are projected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2024 due to these subsidies [10][14] - The domestic smartphone market is experiencing steady growth, with a total shipment of approximately 2.8 billion units expected in 2024. The subsidy policy is anticipated to have a concentrated impact on smartphone sales in the first half of 2025, with potential sales elasticity ranging from 20% to 41% depending on the timing of the subsidy release [20][24] Summary by Sections 1. Subsidy Policies for Home Appliances, Automobiles, and Mobile Phones - Home appliance subsidies cover eight categories, including refrigerators and air conditioners, with a subsidy rate of 15-20% and a maximum subsidy amount of 2000 yuan per item [6] - Automobile subsidies have been enhanced, with increased support for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [14][16] - Mobile phone subsidies are being implemented, with various regions offering different subsidy standards, such as 10-15% off the purchase price, with a maximum discount of 1500 yuan [19][21] 2. Domestic Smartphone Market Growth - The domestic smartphone market has shown robust growth, with shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 reaching 0.693, 0.717, and 0.688 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 9.2%, and 3.2% respectively [20][22] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has increased, with a significant shift in market share towards lower-priced and high-end models [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the mobile phone subsidy policy will primarily benefit Android devices, with various companies in the supply chain expected to actively prepare for increased demand. Beneficiaries include companies in passive components, connectors, thermal management, ODM, analog chips, CIS, and RF sectors [29]