银行资负跟踪：等待央行择机

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the central bank's actions and market liquidity as the year transitions, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy in response to upcoming fiscal pressures and seasonal demands [18][19][22]. Summary by Sections Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a total of 2,909 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,442 billion CNY [18]. - The report notes a significant drop in funding rates for periods longer than 7 days post-year-end, while overnight rates are expected to decline after the upcoming reserve requirement payment date [19]. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) has decreased, with the average issuance rate at 1.67%, down by 2 basis points [20]. - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit for the period was 1,644 billion CNY, with a net financing scale of 1,199 billion CNY [20]. - The report highlights a decrease in the issuance scale of interbank certificates, indicating a potential end to the year-end liability replenishment by banks [20]. Government Debt Financing - The net payment for government bonds was -316.64 billion CNY, with expectations of a similar trend in the upcoming period [18]. - The report indicates that government bond issuance has minimal impact on market liquidity [18]. Interest Rates Overview - The report details the changes in various interest rates, including a decline in government bond yields across all maturities, with the 10-year bond yield settling at 1.60% [21]. - The report also notes a significant increase in bill rates, particularly for 1-month and 3-month bills, reflecting strong demand from banks at the start of the year [21][22].