煤炭2025年度策略报告：或跃在渊

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current coal market cycle has not ended, and the sector still has growth potential. Since 2021, the coal sector has been one of the most rewarding investment directions in the capital market, with a cumulative increase of 68% in the Shenwan Coal Index from January 1, 2021, to December 24, 2024 [2][3] - The supply-demand fundamentals have not fundamentally loosened, and there remains a supply-demand gap in the medium to long term [3][5] - The coal supply has been significantly supplemented by increased domestic production and imports, with a projected increase of approximately 24 million tons in imported coal by 2024 compared to 2022 [3][30] - Coal demand is resilient and shows steady growth, with electricity consumption elasticity increasing significantly [4][5] - The coal price is expected to maintain a high level due to rising production costs and a tight supply-demand balance [6][10] Summary by Sections Supply Side - Domestic raw coal production and import volumes have increased significantly since 2021, but the growth rate has slowed down. The utilization rate of existing coal mines is at full capacity, and new mine construction has been limited [3][20] - The main coal-producing regions, such as Shanxi, have reached peak production, while Xinjiang has significant production elasticity but is constrained by transportation and coal prices [3][23] Demand Side - Coal demand remains resilient, with stable growth in both thermal and coking coal consumption. The elasticity of electricity consumption is expected to rise, indicating a robust demand outlook [4][5] - The demand for coking coal is expected to stabilize, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing sectors [4][5] Price Dynamics - The coal price has experienced fluctuations but is expected to remain at a high level due to rising costs and a tight supply-demand situation. The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal is projected to stay above 800 RMB/ton [6][10] - The cost of coal mining has increased significantly, influenced by factors such as rising oil prices and labor costs, which supports the coal price [6][10] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is still on a path of value reassessment, with many coal companies being undervalued compared to their reset costs. The market is expected to reward high-quality coal companies with better valuations [7][9] - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as well as companies with significant growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and others [10]