需求、供给以及房价的三维解析：降息后美国地产该如何展望？

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. is currently in the 11th long cycle of prosperity since 1818, with short cycles lasting approximately 3-5 years, influenced mainly by long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - Historically, new home sales growth typically turns upward around the time of interest rate cuts, with a lag of about 8.6 months during hard landings and 3 months during soft landings[2][6] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - New home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in November 2024, while existing home sales rose by 6.1%, marking the largest increase in three years[2][19] - The affordability index for U.S. residents was at 67 in October 2024, indicating that housing costs exceed 30% of median household income, reflecting weak affordability[27] Group 3: Supply Conditions - As of November 2024, total inventory of new and existing homes was approximately 1.823 million units, remaining low compared to historical levels[2][36] - New home inventory stood at 493,000 units, while existing home inventory was at 1.33 million units, with the latter being significantly lower than historical peaks[36] Group 4: Price Trends - The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in September 2024, down from a peak of 6.57% earlier in the year[2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 4.7% year-on-year in November 2024, while new home prices have been declining since October 2022[2][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of rate cuts in September 2024, reducing rates by 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[2] - A 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates decreases the likelihood of home sales by 18.1%, indicating the significant impact of interest rates on the housing market[2]