2025年机械行业投资策略：内需萌新芽，出海续繁花，科技结新果

Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious investment strategy for the machinery industry, focusing on opportunities arising from global industrial chain restructuring and domestic demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is facing challenges due to weak downstream demand and manufacturing outflow, with a notable decline in capital expenditure (CapEx) by 9.64% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][24]. - The overall revenue of the machinery sector grew by 9.03% year-on-year in 2024 Q1-Q3, while profit growth was only 0.99%, indicating a trend of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" [1][37]. - Global industrial restructuring is creating new investment opportunities, particularly as the U.S. seeks to diversify its supply chains and reduce reliance on China [2][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro Analysis of the Industry - The machinery sector's domestic demand is constrained by weak downstream demand and manufacturing outflow, with significant declines in CapEx and real estate investment [1][24]. - The machinery industry is experiencing a phenomenon of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to competitive pressures and weakening favorable conditions from raw material prices [1][37]. 2. Domestic Demand Recovery - There is a cautious outlook on domestic demand, with a focus on "self-controllable" sectors such as instrumentation, industrial mother machines, and semiconductor equipment, which are critical for national economic security [3]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from marginal improvements in industry conditions, particularly in offshore wind power components [3]. 3. Opportunities from Global Expansion - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with strong barriers to entry, such as the shipbuilding industry, which has a market share exceeding 70% in China [4]. - Traditional industrial products like injection molding machines and valves are identified as key areas benefiting from global industrial chain restructuring [4]. 4. Technological Innovations - The report identifies technology-driven sectors as independent from domestic and international demand, particularly in humanoid robotics and 3C innovations, which are expected to drive future growth [9]. - The anticipated commercialization of Tesla's humanoid robot and the recovery of hardware demand in the 3C sector are highlighted as significant growth drivers [9]. 5. Beneficiary Companies - Companies benefiting from domestic demand recovery include Chuan Yi Co., Zhongke Feice, and Chip Source Microelectronics, focusing on self-controllable and marginally improving sectors [11]. - Companies positioned to benefit from global expansion include China Shipbuilding, Sany Heavy Industry, and XCMG, which are aligned with strong barriers and global industrial chain restructuring [11]. - In the technology sector, companies like Greentech Harmonic and Saiteng Co. are expected to benefit from advancements in humanoid robotics and 3C innovations [11].