2025年轻工家居行业投资策略：以旧换新仍可期，出口回暖待时机

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 subsidy policy for replacing old products is expected to continue, benefiting leading companies significantly. The Ministry of Finance has allocated approximately 150 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support local implementation of the replacement policy. Furniture retail sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year in November, with a continuous month-on-month improvement for three months. The Minister of Finance indicated that the scope and variety of the replacement policy will be expanded in 2025, suggesting a high probability of continuation [3][18][21]. - The short-term uncertainty in furniture exports is due to anticipated tariffs, while a long-term interest rate cut in the U.S. is expected to stimulate demand for home furnishings. The U.S. is the largest furniture import market, with imports amounting to 72.8159 billion USD in 2022. As of November 2024, Chinese furniture exports reached approximately 60.859 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 6.20% [3][37][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The home furnishing industry has underperformed the market, with a cumulative decline of 1.92% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 2.22%. Notable companies like Mu Si and Xi Lin Men showed varying performance, with Mu Si increasing by 34.15% year-to-date [11][15]. 2. Replacement Subsidy Policy - The replacement subsidy policy is expected to drive retail sales significantly, with estimates suggesting that the subsidy could boost retail sales by 556 to 778 billion yuan, accounting for 8% to 11% of the industry [21][24]. - Leading companies are likely to benefit more from the subsidy due to their extensive store networks and the barriers set for retail qualification under the policy. The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with the CR6 market share rising from 6% in 2019 to 10% in 2023 [29][30]. 3. Export Recovery - The U.S. furniture market is experiencing high inventory levels among wholesalers, which may affect short-term export performance. However, the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to stimulate the real estate market and subsequently boost demand for home furnishings [41][45]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities are recommended for investment, as they are better positioned to navigate the current export challenges. For instance, companies like Jiangxin Home and Tianzhen Co. have established significant production bases in Vietnam and the U.S. [48]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the subsidy policy and have relatively low valuations, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home. Additionally, companies linked to the export chain, like Jiangxin Home and Mengbaihe, are also highlighted for potential investment [4][50].