每周经济观察海外周报第74期：美联储的经济预测准不准？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's economic predictions are communicated through the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released quarterly[2] - Historically, from 2009 to 2019, the Fed's predictions for GDP growth were accurate for the current year, with an average underestimation of only 0.04 percentage points, but overestimated the next year's growth by about 0.40 percentage points[3][12] - Post-pandemic, from 2021 to 2024, the Fed systematically underestimated GDP growth for the current year by approximately 0.35 percentage points and the next year by about 0.20 percentage points[5][12] Group 2: Unemployment Rate Predictions - From 2009 to 2019, the Fed's predictions for the unemployment rate were generally accurate for the current year, with an average overestimation of 0.06 percentage points, but overestimated the next year's rate by about 0.27 percentage points[3][17] - In the period from 2021 to 2024, the Fed tended to overestimate the unemployment rate for both the current year and the next year by approximately 0.20 and 0.24 percentage points, respectively[5][17] Group 3: Core PCE Predictions - Between 2009 and 2019, the Fed's predictions for core PCE inflation were mostly accurate, with an average underestimation of 0.03 percentage points for the current year and a slight overestimation of 0.08 percentage points for the next year[3][24] - From 2021 to 2024, the Fed significantly underestimated core PCE inflation, with predictions lower than actual values by about 0.62 percentage points for the current year and 1.15 percentage points for the next year[5][24] Group 4: Policy Rate Predictions - From 2009 to 2019, the Fed's predictions for the end-of-year policy rate were generally accurate, with an average overestimation of 11 basis points for the current year and 43 basis points for the next year[4][28] - In the period from 2021 to 2024, the Fed underestimated the end-of-year policy rate by about 20 basis points for the current year and 164 basis points for the next year, particularly during the high inflation period of 2022-2023[6][28]