Supply Analysis - Domestic BC asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 25.3% last week, with an expected increase this week; January production is projected to decline by 5%[4] - January asphalt import volume for China is estimated at 200,000 tons[17] Demand Analysis - Last week's BC implied demand four-week moving average decreased by 4% year-on-year; LZ implied demand decreased by 7% year-on-year[29] - Actual demand in various regions shows mixed trends, with Northwest winter storage demand prevailing, while Northeast traders are reluctant to stock due to high costs[26] Inventory Analysis - Last week, refinery inventory increased by 0.62% to 22.07%, with expectations of increased production this week; total national demand is expected to decrease, leading to an anticipated inventory increase[30] - Social inventory of asphalt decreased by 0.24% last week, but is expected to increase this week[36] Profit Analysis - Last week's theoretical after-tax profit for asphalt refineries was -380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan; delayed coking profit was -743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan[47] Price Spread Analysis - As of the close, the 06 contract basis in Shandong was -120, indicating a neutral market position[55] - The price spread between coking materials and asphalt was 1,013 yuan/ton, indicating a bullish sentiment[54]
沥青&燃料油策略周报-
Yi De Qi Huo·2025-01-06 10:43