CNOOC(600938) 国信证券·2025-01-06 13:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][6][13] Core Views - The Suizhong 36-2 oilfield development project is expected to reach a peak production of 9,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2026 [2][18] - The Panyu 11-12/10-1/10-2 oilfields adjustment joint development project is expected to achieve a peak production of 13,600 boe/d by 2025 [9][23] - ExxonMobil plans to develop the eighth project in the Stabroek block, with a target capacity of 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030 [7][10] - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts, which is expected to maintain oil prices in a medium-to-high range [5][8] Project Details Suizhong 36-2 Oilfield - Located in the Bohai Sea with an average water depth of 27 meters [2][18] - Includes 21 development wells (16 production wells and 5 water injection wells) [2][18] - Produces light crude oil [2][18] - Operated by CNOOC with 100% equity [2][18] Panyu 11-12/10-1/10-2 Oilfields - Located in the eastern South China Sea with an average water depth of 100 meters [9][23] - Includes 15 development wells [9][23] - Produces medium and heavy crude oil [9][23] - Features a smart oilfield system with unmanned platforms and advanced production technologies [9][23] - Operated by CNOOC with 100% equity [9][23] Stabroek Block (ExxonMobil) - The eighth project, Longtail, is expected to have a capacity of 240,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2030 [7][10] - Current projects (Liza Phase 1, 2, and Payara) are operational, with Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail projects set to start production by 2027 [7][10] - Total capacity of the Stabroek block is expected to exceed 1.3 mb/d by 2027 and 1.7 mb/d by 2030 [7][10] Financial Forecasts - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 149.8/156.4/163.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3][13] - EPS is forecasted at 3.15/3.29/3.43 yuan for 2024-2026 [3][13] - A-share PE ratios are estimated at 9.2x/8.8x/8.5x for 2024-2026 [3][13] - H-share PE ratios are estimated at 6.6x/6.3x/6.0x for 2024-2026 [3][13] Industry Outlook - OPEC+ extended its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mb/d until March 2025, with gradual recovery planned from April 2025 to September 2026 [5][8] - Global oil demand forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted by OPEC (down to 1.45 mb/d), IEA (up to 1.10 mb/d), and EIA (up to 1.30 mb/d) [5][8] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a medium-to-high range due to OPEC+ production cuts and high fiscal breakeven costs [5][8] Valuation and Comparisons - CNOOC's A-share valuation shows a PE of 9.2x/8.8x/8.5x and PB of 2.0x for 2024-2026 [12] - Comparable companies include PetroChina (PE: 9.3x/8.7x, PB: 1.1x) and CNOOC H-shares (PE: 6.1x/5.8x, PB: 1.1x) [12]