食品饮料周报（25年第1周）：贵州茅台2024年顺利完成目标，关注春节备货窗口期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.17% in the week from December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, but outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.38 percentage points [2][24]. - Guizhou Moutai is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 173.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of about 15.44%, with a net profit of around 85.7 billion yuan, up 14.67% year-on-year [2][13]. - The report highlights three investment themes: 1) Leading companies with strong risk resistance such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu; 2) Companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiansu Yinyuan that may see valuation recovery due to emerging fundamental changes; 3) Companies undergoing reforms that are entering an upward phase [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Baijiu - Guizhou Moutai's production and operational situation for 2024 indicates a focus on market-oriented product launches, with a slight increase in domestic market supply planned for 2025 [2][13]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, with 200,000 shares repurchased for a total of 300 million yuan, and an expected total buyback amount of 3 to 6 billion yuan [2][13]. 1.2 Consumer Goods - The beer sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in non-on-premise channels, with a focus on high-end products [16][17]. - Snack companies are preparing for the peak season, with expectations of significant revenue growth due to channel expansion [18]. - The frozen food sector anticipates a seasonal improvement, supported by policy stimuli in 2025 [20]. - Dairy product companies are expected to see a slight improvement in demand as the worst supply-demand conditions have passed [21][22]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking - The report notes that the white liquor index fell by 4.42% during the week, with sales pressure observed ahead of the Spring Festival [15][24]. - The report tracks price movements, indicating a decline in the price of Feitian Moutai, while other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao remained stable [14][41].