电力设备与新能源行业动态点评：俄乌管道停运或致欧洲电价上行，利好储能需求

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline starting January 2025 is expected to impact 5% of Europe's natural gas imports, leading to an increase in European natural gas prices and subsequently higher electricity prices, which will stimulate household storage demand [1][2] - The report anticipates a recovery in household storage demand in Europe in 2025, driven by rising electricity prices and the completion of inventory destocking in 2024 [2] - Global demand for large-scale energy storage is rapidly increasing, with significant contributions from Europe, the Middle East, and South America [3] - Emerging markets are expected to see increased household storage demand due to power outages and rising electricity prices, particularly in Southeast Asia and North Africa [4] Summary by Sections European Household Storage - The suspension of the Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline will create a supply gap of 5% in European natural gas imports, causing prices to rise from €22.9/MWh in February 2024 to €49.6/MWh by January 2025 [2] - Natural gas price increases will likely lead to higher wholesale electricity prices, which will affect retail electricity prices and stimulate household storage demand [2] Global Large-Scale Storage - Domestic large-scale storage demand in China has been robust, with increasing bidding activity in 2024 [3] - The U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase in planned installations and ongoing projects, with expectations of improved conditions due to high interest rates and material costs [3] - Europe is actively developing renewable energy to reduce dependence on external energy sources and lower carbon emissions, leading to a significant increase in large-scale storage demand [3] - The projected energy storage demand for 2025 is 113.7 GWh in China, 52.0 GWh in the U.S., and 28.9 GWh in Europe [3] Emerging Market Household Storage - Power outages and rising electricity prices are the main drivers of household storage demand in various regions [4] - The report highlights that countries like Thailand and Vietnam have been increasing electricity prices, which will further drive household storage demand [4] - India may implement mandatory storage requirements, and Egypt is planning significant developments that will increase regional electricity demand [4] Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies in the energy storage sector, including: - Sungrow Power (Buy) with a target price of 121.80 [9] - DeYuan Co. (Buy) with a target price of 125.80 [9] - Shangneng Electric (Buy) with a target price of 54.88 [9] - Jinlang Technology (Overweight) with a target price of 60.69 [9] - GoodWe (Overweight) with a target price of 57.20 [9] - Shenghong Co. (Buy) with a target price of 35.91 [9]