2025年特斯拉产业链投资策略：新一轮周期的起点！

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the Tesla supply chain, highlighting opportunities arising from the new product cycle and global expansion [10]. Core Insights - The intelligent driving industry is at a turning point, with the penetration rate of L3 intelligent vehicles in China expected to exceed 10% in 2024 and 20% in 2025, potentially reaching 70% by 2027 [7]. - Tesla is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, with projections indicating an increase in production capacity and product offerings, including the revamped Model Y, new affordable models, and Cybercab [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Tesla's supply chain partners, which are expected to grow alongside Tesla's expansion, particularly those with global capabilities [12]. Summary by Sections Tesla's Product and Capacity Outlook - The report outlines significant milestones for Tesla's various business lines in 2025-2026, including the global launch of the revamped Model Y and the introduction of the Cybertruck [11][20]. - Tesla's global production capacity is projected to reach 2.35 million units per year, with expectations of a 20%-30% increase in sales by 2025 [25][28]. Supply Chain Analysis - Key suppliers identified include Top Group, Xinquan, and Aikedi, which are positioned as core partners in Tesla's supply chain, providing components such as interior parts, lightweight materials, and thermal management systems [66]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of local suppliers in supporting Tesla's global expansion and the trend of domestic suppliers establishing overseas operations to align with Tesla's growth [74]. Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The report discusses the acceleration of Tesla's intelligent driving software and hardware iterations, with significant updates expected in 2024 and 2025, including the rollout of FSD V13 and the introduction of Robotaxi services [31][36]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is projected to enter mass production by 2025, leveraging the company's existing automotive technologies and supply chain efficiencies [45].