通威股份：成本为王，积极布局光伏一体化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (first coverage) [2] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a dual leader in silicon materials and solar cells, with a gradually improving integrated layout. The solar industry is currently facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and price competition, leading to revenue and profit declines for major players. However, the company is actively expanding its integrated business and leveraging its technological, scale, and market advantages to maintain cost competitiveness [9][74]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - Total share capital is 4.502 billion shares, with a circulating A-share market value of 101.745 billion yuan. The net asset per share is 11.01 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio stands at 69.04% [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 139.104 billion yuan, with a decline of 2.33% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a significant drop to 107.547 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 141.708 billion yuan in 2025 and 172.264 billion yuan in 2026. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -4.687 billion yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 3.352 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.248 billion yuan in 2026 [7][78]. Industry Situation - The solar industry is currently at a profitability low point, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve in 2025. The domestic solar installation growth rate is projected to be around 8%-10% for 2024-2025, with significant contributions from emerging markets [27][29]. Company Highlights 1. Silicon Production Capacity: The company holds the world's largest silicon production capacity, projected to reach 900,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a total planned capacity exceeding 1.3 million tons. The production cost is approximately 40,000 yuan per ton, providing a competitive edge despite price pressures [9][74]. 2. Battery Technology: The company has achieved full coverage of new battery technologies, with TNC battery costs reduced by 20%. It has maintained its position as the world's leading solar cell supplier for seven consecutive years [59][61]. 3. Component Shipment Growth: The company ranks among the top five globally in component shipments, with a production capacity exceeding 80GW by the end of 2024. It has successfully expanded its overseas orders, including significant contracts in South Africa and the UAE [65][69]. 4. Integrated Development Model: The company has developed a "fishing-solar integration" model, combining smart aquaculture with clean energy, having built 55 solar power stations with a total installed capacity of over 4.595GW [70][75]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see net profits of -4.687 billion yuan in 2024, followed by 3.352 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.248 billion yuan in 2026. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected at -1.04 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 1.39 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 22.60 yuan on December 30, 2024, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are -21.71, 30.35, and 16.29 for the respective years [7][74][78].