2025年通信行业投资策略报告：固本强基，融合天地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry significantly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices in 2024, ranking third among 31 primary industries [1][15]. - The valuation of the communication industry at the end of 2024 slightly increased compared to the beginning of the year, remaining within a reasonable range despite being slightly above the historical three-year average [19]. - The report identifies two core investment themes for 2025: the AI computing power industry chain and the integration of terrestrial and space systems, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and policy support [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shenwan Communication Index rose by 28.82% in 2024, outperforming both the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices by 14.13 percentage points and 15.59 percentage points, respectively [14][15]. - The index experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, with a notable recovery starting in mid-February due to the rising demand in the AI sector [14]. 2. Communication Industry Overview - The overall economic performance of the communication industry is stable, with telecommunications revenue reaching CNY 15,947 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [21][25]. - The fixed internet broadband business revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall telecommunications revenue growth [25]. 3. Investment Themes - AI Computing Power Industry Chain: - The demand for intelligent computing is expected to accelerate, driven by advancements in AI and domestic computing infrastructure [2]. - The construction of intelligent computing centers is projected to boost server demand and increase the need for liquid cooling solutions [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules and the potential for domestic substitution of high-end optical chips are highlighted as key growth areas [2]. - Integration of Terrestrial and Space Systems: - The establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Management Office reflects the government's commitment to developing the low-altitude economy, with significant policy support anticipated [5]. - The deployment of the BeiDou navigation system is expected to accelerate, enhancing its application in various sectors [5]. - The satellite internet market is poised for growth, with significant advancements in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the acceleration of 5G applications and the dual core investment themes of AI computing power and terrestrial-space integration [6]. - Specific areas of interest include the construction of intelligent computing centers, the demand for liquid cooling servers, and the growth of the satellite internet industry [6].