KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 中银证券·2025-01-07 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) with a target price of RMB 1,440 00 [1] - The sector rating is Outperform [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved its 2024 targets with an estimated operating revenue of RMB 173 8 billion (+15 4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 7 billion (+14 7% YoY) [3] - The company announced a "three-year dividend plan" with a payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and a mid-year dividend of RMB 23 882 per share (totaling over RMB 30 billion) [5] - A share buyback plan of RMB 3-6 billion was announced to enhance investor confidence [5] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 23, 74 46, and 81 19 for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 1X, 19 3X, and 17 7X [5] Business Performance - In 2024, Moutai liquor revenue reached RMB 145 8 billion (+15 2% YoY), while series liquor revenue grew to RMB 24 6 billion (+19 2% YoY) [8] - Q4 2024 saw a slowdown in series liquor revenue growth to 3 4%, while Moutai liquor maintained double-digit growth at 13 6% [8] - The company produced 56 3k tons of Moutai base liquor (-1 6% YoY) and 48 1k tons of series liquor base liquor (+12 0% YoY) in 2024 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "three transformations" (customer base, consumption scenarios, and service) to adapt to market changes [8] - For 2025, Moutai plans to slightly increase domestic market allocation of Moutai liquor, reduce the allocation of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai, and increase the allocation of 1000ml bottles to stabilize prices [8] - The company aims to build three RMB 10 billion business units for series liquor: Moutai 1935, Moutai Prince, and Han Sauce [8] Financial Projections - Operating revenue is projected to grow to RMB 187 6 billion (+10 0% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 207 0 billion (+10 3% YoY) in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 93 5 billion (+9 1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 102 0 billion (+9 0% YoY) in 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow to RMB 127 1 billion in 2025 and RMB 138 9 billion in 2026 [7]