算账系列卷九：以旧换新政策对家电销售拉动测算：展望2025年，以旧换新政策影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the home appliance industry [7] Core Insights - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly stimulated demand in the home appliance sector, with retail sales of household appliances increasing by 21% year-on-year from August to November 2024, compared to a mere 2% growth from January to July 2024 [12][15] - The report predicts that the "old-for-new" subsidy will continue to effectively boost domestic demand in 2025, estimating that the subsidy amount will be 80 billion yuan, leading to projected sales volumes of 10.936 million units for air conditioners, 4.483 million for refrigerators, 4.591 million for washing machines, and 3.677 million for color TVs, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 1%, 2%, and -3% respectively [3][33] Summary by Sections Impact of "Old-for-New" Subsidy on 2024 Demand - The "old-for-new" subsidy has led to a notable increase in retail demand for home appliances, with a significant rise in average prices for air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs in late 2024 [12][15] - The subsidy is expected to drive demand for air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs by 6.8 million, 360,000, 1.59 million, and 920,000 units respectively in 2024, accounting for 7%, 1%, 4%, and 2% of their respective total sales [2][17] Predictions for 2025 Demand - Two quantitative methods were used to forecast the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy on demand in 2025, with the first method categorizing demand into new housing, replacement, and additional needs [3][20] - The second method estimates the overall retail growth driven by the subsidy, projecting a retail growth of 53.3 billion yuan in Q4 2024 due to the subsidy, with a similar effect expected in 2025 [3][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" subsidy and maintain high dividend yields [4]