宏观深度报告：关税“迷雾”的背后：特朗普关税工具如何落地？

Group 1: Tariff Policy Framework - Trump's tariff policy preferences are likely to rely on Sections 201, 232, and 301, which do not require congressional approval and have precedents from his first term[1] - The IEEPA mechanism is also a viable option for broad tariff increases, while Sections 122 and 338 are less likely to be utilized due to lack of precedent[1] - Cancelling Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status is complex and less likely to be pursued due to the need for bipartisan agreement in Congress[1] Group 2: Implementation Pathways - Tariff increases can be implemented through executive orders, utilizing specific trade provisions or the IEEPA, which allows for rapid action[2] - The process for cancelling PNTR status involves multiple legislative steps, making it a less immediate option for tariff adjustments[2] - The Trump administration may use trade investigations and the cancellation of PNTR status as leverage in negotiations, treating the latter as a last resort[1] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - There are risks associated with Trump's potential re-election, including political instability and market volatility due to unpredictable policy announcements[3] - The market reacted to reports of a potential tariff plan, with the dollar index dropping over 1% before recovering after Trump's clarification[3] - The geopolitical landscape and domestic issues may influence tariff decisions, with Trump indicating potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico related to drug issues[3]