风电行业2025年投资策略：两海需求共振向上，聚焦结构性涨价环节

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, driven by the resolution of constraints in offshore wind and high bidding activity, with projected offshore installations reaching 12-15 GW [6][34] - The domestic wind power sector saw a total installed capacity of 39.12 GW in the first three quarters of 2024, with onshore wind contributing 36.7 GW and offshore wind only 2.47 GW, indicating a significant disparity in growth rates [18][22] - The report highlights a structural price increase opportunity in the supply chain, particularly in the turbine and casting segments, as demand recovers and supply tightens [6][34] Summary by Sections 1. Onshore and Offshore Wind Installation Trends - In 2024, the offshore wind installation was below expectations, with only 2.47 GW added, while onshore wind installations reached 36.7 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% and 72.7% respectively [18][22] - The average utilization rate for wind power in the first three quarters of 2024 was 96.2%, a slight decrease from the previous year [18] - The report anticipates a significant increase in offshore wind installations in 2025, supported by provincial development goals under the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][34] 2. Pricing and Profitability in Onshore Wind - The report notes that onshore wind turbine prices have stabilized after a decline, with expectations of profitability recovering in 2025 [6][34] - The offshore wind market is expected to benefit from favorable policies and increased demand, particularly in Europe and emerging markets [6][34] 3. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for large-scale cast and forged components is expected to tighten, with the market for forged main shafts projected to reach 6.874 billion CNY in 2025 [6][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity and technological advancements in maintaining competitive advantages within the supply chain [6][34] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Sany Heavy Energy in the turbine segment, and Dayang Heavy Industry and Huadian Heavy Industries in the tower segment [6][34] - The report suggests that companies with significant offshore wind deployment and high overseas customer ratios will be well-positioned for growth [6][34]